FixGovCan president Trump success an Electoral College bulk in 2020?William A. GalstonMonday, October 19, 2020
The 2016 election was a bracing reminder the the presidency is won or lost in the states and also not in the national well-known vote. Donald Trump lost nationally through 2.9 million votes (2.1% the the complete cast) while winning a comfortable Electoral university majority.

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Can that repeat this feat in 2020? Yes. Can he carry out it if that loses 보다 national renowned vote by a bigger margin than four years ago? more than likely not. To victory reelection, chairman Trump will need to reduce Joe Biden’s nationwide vote advantage, which currently stands at an ext than 10 portion points, by around 8 points during the final two main of the campaign, an accomplishment for i m sorry there’s no clear precedent in American history. If he drops just short of replicating his 2016 showing, the country could be plunged right into a dangerous political and also legal struggle combining the worst features of 2000 and also 1876.

Having learned your lesson in 2016, as soon as pollsters for various media companies had actually pretty an excellent estimates the the ultimate national vote but missed considerably in what turned the end to be the crucial states, inspection researchers space doing more polls with greater quality in the swing states this year. This permits us to gauge with some trust the current instance in the 13 claims that can conceivably swing into either party’s column, either currently or in ~ some allude in 2020.

Table 1: Biden lead in waver states

StateBiden lead (deficit)
New Hampshire11.5
North Carolina3.1

Source: FiveThirtyEight

As the now, Joe Biden leads in 11 of this 13 states. Through contrast, Donald Trump won ten of lock in 2016 and also Hillary Clinton just three (New Hampshire, Minnesota, and also Nevada). That these 3 states, Biden’s lead in new Hampshire and also Minnesota is too big to surmount, barring a politics earthquake. Trump has actually an external chance come prevail in only one Clinton state—Nevada—and to do so, the would have to improve his present standing substantially.

Looking in ~ the existing swing state polling against the backdrop of the national renowned vote average permits us to task four possible scenarios.

Scenario 1. Trump cuts Biden’s lead in half

Suppose that the non-stop live-event campaign the trumped team has planned cuts Joe Biden’s lead in half, indigenous 10 points come 5. In this scenario, trumped would success the two states where he at this time leads—Ohio and also Texas—and would certainly pick up Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and also North Carolina. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada would remain in the Biden column. President Trump would success 258 electoral votes, 12 quick of a majority.

Scenario 2. Trump cuts Biden’s cause 4 points

Suppose president Trump does even better, cutting Biden’s popular vote command to just 4 points. It turns out that this would have actually no effect on Electoral college outcome, since Biden would still lug the three midwestern “Blue Wall” states plus Nevada.

Scenario 3. Trump cut Biden’s cause 2 points

Suppose chairman Trump’s campaign is so efficient that he cut Biden’s renowned vote margin to just 2 points, replicating the 2016 results. In this event, trumped would bring all the states he winner in 2016 add to Nevada—a full of 312 electoral votes.

Scenario 4: The nightmare

Suppose president Trump cut Biden’s cause 3 points. Back Nevada most likely would loss into his hands, Pennsylvania would certainly be too close to call. In this event, the state that many observers think has the highest potential for electoral delays and snafus in counting mail-in ballots would recognize the result of the race. This would all but guarantee a replay the the Florida dispute in 2000 that finished with Bush v. Gore, yet with a much higher level the partisan polarization, more intense divisions over the legitimacy that the can be fried Court, and heightened threats of polite disorder. If it may not reach the level the rancor following the questioned 1876 election—when the post-Civil War restoration era pertained to its bitter end—it could make the debated 2000 election look tame by comparison.

There’s an apparent objection to mine analysis: i have assumed that shifts in the national popular vote would certainly be same distributed across the states. Isn’t it possible that the totter states can diverge substantially from the nationwide average?

While nobody can ascendancy this out, there’s important evidence to the contrary. The 4.3 percentage-point reduction in president Trump’s support between 2016 and today has actually been dispersed remarkably evenly among the totter states, as displayed in Table 2.

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Table 2

StateTrump 2016Trump 2020Difference
New Hampshire46.642.24.4
North Carolina49.845.93.9

Sources: State Secretaries of State; FiveThirtyEight

The bottom line: with just one outlier (Nevada), the change in president Trump’s support in between 2016 and 2020 has actually been remarkable uniform, both among the totter states and between those states and the remainder of the country. Although the electoral college outcomes will be determined by the individual states, the 2020 election is being shaped much an ext by national components than through differences amongst the states. The implicitly is that President Trump will certainly not be able to overcome Joe Biden’s existing Electoral university lead, which is substantial, uneven he deserve to reduce Biden’s national well-known vote benefit to about the 2-point difference of 2016. The worst-case result is the Trump it s okay close come this result without equaling it, leaving the result of the election in doubt and also throwing the country into chaos under highly adverse circumstances.