This is one of those sentences that you will certainly hear a lot in between now and also Nov. 8, yet it"s quiet remarkable. Accurate never, from Abraham Lincoln come George W. Bush, has actually an elected Republican president not won Ohio. Every time a Republican has lost Ohio, he has actually lost the presidency.

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The closestly analog for the democrats is Maryland. Just once has actually a Democrat been chosen to the presidency without moving Maryland. That was the 1948 election, in i m sorry Maryland mirrored many of the remainder of the Republican northeast in backing cutting board Dewey"s candidacy for the GOP. (Despite what friend may have read in the newspapers, Dewey lost.)

In 2016, Maryland will be a lot easier for Hillary Clinton to success (she leader by an ext than 30 points, follow to RealClearPolitics) than Ohio will be because that Donald trump (he trails through 3).

It also seems unlikely the Trump will certainly reel in a variety of the various other top claims that Republicans have actually relied ~ above in the past. Brand-new Hampshire? Maybe. Vermont? No. Illinois? Never.

For every one of the time we invest considering the red and also blue says in the presidential choice process, it"s easy to forget just how recently those designations arose. Georgia is among the claims that has actually least consistently voted for a win Republican -- due to the fact that it, choose the remainder of the Deep South, was heavily democratic until ~ the passage of the Civil rights Act.

The tricky state on Hillary Clinton"s list is Florida. Only twice has a Democrat winner the presidency without winning Florida, in 1960 (John Kennedy) and also 1992 (a man named bill Clinton).

In total, the winner that the presidency has actually won Florida in 26 the the 38 elections since 1860. That"s toward the center of the pack, as much as it goes. The states that have most regularly voted for the winner of the presidency are:

Clinton will absolutely win at least three the those states and also is right now leading in the other four.

The state that"s least necessary for winning the presidency, nevertheless of party? setting aside Alaska and Hawaii (which space still little baby states, loved one to U.S. History), it"s Mississippi. An ext than half the time, the winner of Mississippi (and Georgia, Alabama and also South Dakota) hasn"t winner the presidency. Three of those states, Trump will certainly win; just Georgia is a question mark.

The conventional caveat applies: A pool of 38 vote isn"t enough to make declarative statements around what will and won"t happen. Ns feel comfortable saying that if Hillary Clinton loses Maryland, she won"t success the presidency. If Donald Trump loses Ohio but wins Florida and Pennsylvania (for example), he could still win.

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