Recent polls imply Joe Biden has a far-reaching and steady lead end Republican Donald trump in this year's presidential race in both nationwide preference and vital swing-state surveys.


Due come record-shattering fundraising, the Democrat likewise has a sizeable financial advantage, which method he'll be able to blanket the airwaves through his campaign message in the last weeks.

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Electoral experts have been boosting their odds that Trump will shed his re-election bid. Nate Silver's Fivethirtyeight.com blog currently has Biden v an 87% possibility of winning, if Decision desk HQ puts him at 83.5%.


If every one of this is painfully familiar to Democrats, it should be. At a comparable point 4 years ago, Hillary Clinton was likewise predicted to have a high likelihood that victory. Lock remember just how that rotate out.


Could background repeat chin with one more Trump victory? If the president is acquisition the oath of office when again in January, right here are five feasible reasons why the happened.


Four years ago, simply 11 days prior to the election, FBI manager James Comey disclosed the his company was reopening an investigation into Clinton's usage of a exclusive email server if secretary that state. For a week, connected stories conquered the headlines and also gave the Trump campaign room come breathe.


With just over 2 weeks prior to polls near in 2020, a comparable seismic political event can be enough to propel Trump to victory.


So far, in ~ least, the large surprises this month have been bad news because that Trump - such together the revelation the his taxes returns and also his hospitalisation because that Covid-19.


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A new York article article about a secret laptop containing an e-mail that might link Joe Biden to his kid Hunter's initiatives to lobby because that a Ukrainian gas agency has to be billed by some conservatives therefore a project earthquake - yet its questionable provenance and lack the specificity method it's unlikely to sway countless voters.


Trump has actually promised that there's more to come, however. If this is just an opening salvo, setting up straight evidence that wrongdoing by Biden when vice-president, that might be a different, enlarge story.


Or perhaps there's another, wholly unanticipated and shocking campaign development that's just about to burst.


Practically due to the fact that Biden secured the autonomous Party's presidential nomination, national polls have given him a stable lead end Trump. Even in crucial swing states, i beg your pardon have displayed a tighter race, Biden has actually demonstrated a continuous lead commonly outside the margin of error.


As 2016 demonstrated, however, nationwide leads room irrelevant and also state-level polls can miss the mark.


Predicting what a presidential electorate will look like - the is, that will actually present up to cast a ballot - is a challenge in every election, and also some pollsters obtained it wrong critical time, undercounting the variety of white, non-college-educated voters who would rotate out because that Trump.


Although the new York times predicts Biden's existing margins would defend him from also a 2016-level misfire, pollsters have some brand-new obstacles to conquer in 2020.


Many Americans, because that instance, room planning to poll by mail for the very first time. Republicans are already promising to aggressively challenge mail-in ballots to prevent what lock say might be the potential for widespread fraud - miscellaneous Democrats have actually said is really an effort at voter suppression.


If voter fill the end their forms incorrectly or execute not follow suitable procedure, or there is delay or disruption in mail delivery, it can lead come otherwise precious ballots being discarded. Understaffed or limited in-person polling places could likewise make that more challenging to vote on election day, discouraging americans who had actually been taken into consideration by pollsters to be "likely voters."


The dust has actually now worked out from the first presidential debate between Trump and also Biden much more than 2 weeks ago, and also the chairman is the one who obtained the dirtiest.


Polls suggest Trump's aggressive, interrupting format didn't play well through suburban women, who room a an essential voting demography in this campaign. Meanwhile, Biden held up adequately under fire, assuaging concerns amongst voters - play up by republic - that he had actually lost a action in his proceeding age.


Trump to let go an possibility to change his first-debate impressions as soon as he backed the end of the 2nd scheduled debate since it had actually been switched from in-person come a "virtual format". He'll have one much more chance on the big stage next Thursday and also will need to make that count.


If Trump gift a calmer, more presidential demeanour and also Biden come unglued or has actually some an especially dramatic gaffe, the balance of the race could possibly tilt in Trump's favour.


Even through polls showing an advantage for Biden, over there are sufficient states whereby Trump is front or in ~ the margin of error that - if things break just the right means for the president - the Electoral college arithmetic could work the end for him.


Even though Trump lost the national popular vote last time around, he had a comfortable margin in the Electoral College, whereby each state gets a variety of votes based on their population.


Some the the swing states he won - like Michigan and Wisconsin - seem come be the end of with this time. However if he deserve to claw out small victories in the rest, transforming out even much more white non-college voter in locations like Pennsylvania and also Florida, he deserve to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to victory the White House.


There are even scenarios wherein he and Biden each gain 269 votes, developing a tie that would be chose by the state delegations to residence of Representatives, a majority of i beg your pardon would most likely side through Trump.


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Whether it's by architecture or due to the realities applied by the coronavirus pandemic, a candidate known to be gaffe-prone has been maybe to greatly stay out of the spotlight and avoid instances where his mouth can obtain him in trouble.


But Biden is now hitting the project trail in earnest. With an ext exposure come a better risk of saying or law something that costs him at the polls.


Biden's electoral coalition is a hodgepodge the suburban moderates, disaffected Republicans, classic working-class Democrats, country minorities and also liberal true believers. That's a lot of different and conflicting interests that could be stirred to anger if he provides them reason to.


Then there's the possibility that, under the exhaustion of the campaign trail, Biden shows his age and again raises concern around whether that is approximately the task of being president. If he does, the Trump project will be poised come pounce.

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The Biden project may feel it just needs to run the end the clock, and also the White house will be theirs. Yet if they stumble, they wouldn't be the an initial political team to uncover a means to snatch improbable defeat from the jaws that what seemed particular victory.